Well, it looks like my life is becoming a little less of a media circus, so it's time to get back to hard-core analysis of the VP race. If you haven't heard yet, the numerous polls show the McCain-Palin ticket dramatically stealing the lead from Obama-Biden. A USA Today/Gallup poll even shows a 10% McCain-Palin lead among likely voters.
So, the Palin nomination (coupled with a fantastic convention) has definitely invigorated the McCain campaign. But before we issue a premature declaration of victory, we have to answer one critical question: is this merely a short-term bounce out of the convention or a total realignment of public opinion? Personally, I say that the answer to both questions is "yes". The GOP ticket is certainly flying height coming out of the convention, and the polls have yet to stabilize. However, there is good reason to believe that the dynamics of this election have changed. By nominating Palin, the McCain campaign has recaptured the "maverick" label and ripped the "change" argument out from under Barack Obama. Meanwhile, strategist Steve Schmidt has overhauled the McCain campaign, molding it into a lean, mean electoral machine. And finally, Barack Obama has thrown his campaign totally off message by nominating uber-insider Joe Biden as his VP. With all of those factors working in McCain's favor, it is not a stretch to think that the Gentleman from Arizona will still be in the lead once the polls stabilize.
It also does not appear that "Sarahmania" will peter out any time soon. The McCain campaign is wisely choosing to keep her in the news rather than allowing her to disappear until the debates. This will allow Palin's star power to continue to lift the McCain campaign and build anticipation for the debates. Sarah should do well against Biden (who has been largely de-fanged by her nomination), launching a second round of Palin-buzz akin to what we saw after her convention speech. McCain himself will also get buzz out of the debates, as he shines brightest in Q&A sessions. Obama, on the other hand, is best when he delivers uninterrupted speeches.
In short, my view of the future is this: The current bounce from Palin will likely continue until the debates, when the McCain ticket will another shot in the arm. After that, he just has to hold the lead until election day. I'm not necessarily saying that this is going to happen, but I think that it is a very plausible scenario. So, while I wouldn't start the party just yet, it may be time to start pricing champagne.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Palin's Personal life
Palin is a self-described "hockey mom" and mother of five. Among her common activities are hunting, ice fishing and riding snowmobiles; she has also run a marathon, and owns a floatplane.
Palin was originally baptized as a Roman Catholic, but her parents switched to the Wasilla Assembly of God, a Pentecostal church, where she was rebaptized at age 12 or 13, and attended under pastor Ed Kalnins until 2002. When she is in the capital, she attends Juneau Christian Center,another Assemblies of God church. Her current home church in Wasilla is The Wasilla Bible Church, under Pastor Larry Kroon an independent congregation.Initial reports described her as the first Pentecostal ever named to a major party's presidential ticket; Palin has described herself as a "Bible-believing Christian" who attends a non-denominational church. The National Catholic Reporter described her as a "post-denominational" Christian.
In June 2008, Palin spoke at her former church. On the topic of Iraq, she asked that people pray for the soldiers and that "there is a plan and that that plan is God's plan." In regards to a proposed natural-gas pipeline she said, "I think God's will has to be done in unifying people and companies to get that gas line built." On August 17, Palin was in attendence when David Brickner, the leader of Jews for Jesus, gave a guest sermon claiming that terrorism against Israel is due to the disbelief in Jesus by its Jewish population; according to a McCain campaign spokesman, Palin rejected his views.
Sarah Palin eloped with her high-school boyfriend, Todd Palin, on August 29, 1988, when she was 24 years old.Todd works for BP as an oil-field production operator[119] and owns a commercial fishing business. The family lives in Wasilla.
The couple have five children: sons Track (born 1989) and Trig (born 2008), and daughters Bristol (born 1990), Willow (born 1995), and Piper (born 2001).[120] Todd and Track Palin are registered to vote as independents ("undeclared").[121] Track Palin enlisted in the U.S. Army on September 11, 2007, subsequently joining an infantry brigade. He is set to be deployed to Iraq in September 2008.Palin's youngest child, Trig, has Down syndrome, diagnosed prenatally.
Palin announced on September 1, 2008, that her daughter Bristol was five months pregnant and intended to keep the baby and marry the father of her child, 17-year-old Levi Johnston.The McCain-Palin campaign stated that John McCain was aware of her daughter's pregnancy, but that it did not affect his choice.Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama and his campaign staff declared the subject "off limits" in the coming campaign.
Palin was originally baptized as a Roman Catholic, but her parents switched to the Wasilla Assembly of God, a Pentecostal church, where she was rebaptized at age 12 or 13, and attended under pastor Ed Kalnins until 2002. When she is in the capital, she attends Juneau Christian Center,another Assemblies of God church. Her current home church in Wasilla is The Wasilla Bible Church, under Pastor Larry Kroon an independent congregation.Initial reports described her as the first Pentecostal ever named to a major party's presidential ticket; Palin has described herself as a "Bible-believing Christian" who attends a non-denominational church. The National Catholic Reporter described her as a "post-denominational" Christian.
In June 2008, Palin spoke at her former church. On the topic of Iraq, she asked that people pray for the soldiers and that "there is a plan and that that plan is God's plan." In regards to a proposed natural-gas pipeline she said, "I think God's will has to be done in unifying people and companies to get that gas line built." On August 17, Palin was in attendence when David Brickner, the leader of Jews for Jesus, gave a guest sermon claiming that terrorism against Israel is due to the disbelief in Jesus by its Jewish population; according to a McCain campaign spokesman, Palin rejected his views.
Sarah Palin eloped with her high-school boyfriend, Todd Palin, on August 29, 1988, when she was 24 years old.Todd works for BP as an oil-field production operator[119] and owns a commercial fishing business. The family lives in Wasilla.
The couple have five children: sons Track (born 1989) and Trig (born 2008), and daughters Bristol (born 1990), Willow (born 1995), and Piper (born 2001).[120] Todd and Track Palin are registered to vote as independents ("undeclared").[121] Track Palin enlisted in the U.S. Army on September 11, 2007, subsequently joining an infantry brigade. He is set to be deployed to Iraq in September 2008.Palin's youngest child, Trig, has Down syndrome, diagnosed prenatally.
Palin announced on September 1, 2008, that her daughter Bristol was five months pregnant and intended to keep the baby and marry the father of her child, 17-year-old Levi Johnston.The McCain-Palin campaign stated that John McCain was aware of her daughter's pregnancy, but that it did not affect his choice.Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama and his campaign staff declared the subject "off limits" in the coming campaign.
Early political career in Wasila City
Wasilla is a city of 6,715 that is 68 km (42 miles) north of the port of Anchorage.Palin began her political career in 1992, when she ran for a three-year term on the Wasilla city council, supporting a controversial new sales tax and advocating "a safer, more progressive Wasilla.She won, and won re-election to a second three-year term in the 1995 election.
In 1996, Palin challenged and defeated incumbent John Stein for the office of mayor.[19] In the campaign, she criticized Stein for what she called wasteful spending and high taxes,and highlighted issues such as abortion, religion and gun control.[20] Though the position of mayor is non-partisan, the state Republican Party ran advertisements on her behalf.
In October 1996, she asked the Wasilla police chief, librarian, public works director, and finance director to resign, and she instituted a policy requiring department heads to get her approval before talking to reporters.In January 1997, Palin notified the police chief, Irl Stambaugh, and the town librarian, Mary Ellen Emmons that they were being fired.Palin said in a letter that she wanted a change because she believed the two did not fully support her administration. She rescinded the firing of the librarian, but not the police chief.The chief filed a lawsuit; but a court dismissed it, finding that the mayor had the right to fire city employees for nearly any reason.According to Ann Kilkenny, a Democrat who observed City Council, Palin also brought up the idea of banning some books at one meeting, but did not follow through with the idea.
As mayor of Wasilla, Palin was in charge of the city Police Department, consisting of 25 officers, and Public Works.She was praised for cutting property taxes by 40 percent while improving roads and sewers and strengthening the Police Department.She also reduced the mayoral salary, reduced spending on the town museum, and opposed a bigger library.She increased the city sales tax to pay for the new Wasilla Multi-Use Sports Complex,which eventually went over budget due to an eminent domain lawsuit.
Palin ran for re-election against Stein in 1999 and was returned to office by a margin of 909 to 292 votes.Palin was also elected president of the Alaska Conference of Mayors.
During her second term as mayor, Palin hired the Anchorage-based lobbying firm of Robertson, Monagle & Eastaugh to lobby for earmarks for Wasilla. The effort was led by Steven Silver, a former chief of staff for Senator Ted Stevens,and it secured nearly $27 million in earmarked funds. The earmarks included $500,000 for a youth shelter, $1.9 million for a transportation hub, $900,000 for sewer repairs, and $15 million for a rail project linking Wasilla and the ski resort community of Girdwood.Some of the earmarks were criticized by Senator McCain.
In 2002, term limits prevented Palin from running for a third term as mayor.Her stepmother-in-law, Faye Palin, ran for the office but lost the election to Dianne Keller after Sarah Palin endorsed Keller,her cousin.
In 1996, Palin challenged and defeated incumbent John Stein for the office of mayor.[19] In the campaign, she criticized Stein for what she called wasteful spending and high taxes,and highlighted issues such as abortion, religion and gun control.[20] Though the position of mayor is non-partisan, the state Republican Party ran advertisements on her behalf.
In October 1996, she asked the Wasilla police chief, librarian, public works director, and finance director to resign, and she instituted a policy requiring department heads to get her approval before talking to reporters.In January 1997, Palin notified the police chief, Irl Stambaugh, and the town librarian, Mary Ellen Emmons that they were being fired.Palin said in a letter that she wanted a change because she believed the two did not fully support her administration. She rescinded the firing of the librarian, but not the police chief.The chief filed a lawsuit; but a court dismissed it, finding that the mayor had the right to fire city employees for nearly any reason.According to Ann Kilkenny, a Democrat who observed City Council, Palin also brought up the idea of banning some books at one meeting, but did not follow through with the idea.
As mayor of Wasilla, Palin was in charge of the city Police Department, consisting of 25 officers, and Public Works.She was praised for cutting property taxes by 40 percent while improving roads and sewers and strengthening the Police Department.She also reduced the mayoral salary, reduced spending on the town museum, and opposed a bigger library.She increased the city sales tax to pay for the new Wasilla Multi-Use Sports Complex,which eventually went over budget due to an eminent domain lawsuit.
Palin ran for re-election against Stein in 1999 and was returned to office by a margin of 909 to 292 votes.Palin was also elected president of the Alaska Conference of Mayors.
During her second term as mayor, Palin hired the Anchorage-based lobbying firm of Robertson, Monagle & Eastaugh to lobby for earmarks for Wasilla. The effort was led by Steven Silver, a former chief of staff for Senator Ted Stevens,and it secured nearly $27 million in earmarked funds. The earmarks included $500,000 for a youth shelter, $1.9 million for a transportation hub, $900,000 for sewer repairs, and $15 million for a rail project linking Wasilla and the ski resort community of Girdwood.Some of the earmarks were criticized by Senator McCain.
In 2002, term limits prevented Palin from running for a third term as mayor.Her stepmother-in-law, Faye Palin, ran for the office but lost the election to Dianne Keller after Sarah Palin endorsed Keller,her cousin.
Early life and education of Sarah Palin
Palin was born Sarah Louise Heath in Sandpoint, Idaho, the third of four children of Sarah Heath, a school secretary, and Charles R. Heath, a science teacher and track coach.[6] Her family moved to Alaska when she was an infant.As a child, she would sometimes go moose hunting with her father before school, and the family regularly ran 5K and 10K races.
Palin attended Wasilla High School in Wasilla, Alaska, where she was the head of the Fellowship of Christian Athletes chapter at the school, and the point guard and captain of the school's basketball team.She helped the team win the Alaska small-school basketball championship in 1982, hitting a critical free throw in the last seconds of the game, despite having an ankle stress fracture.She earned the nickname "Sarah Barracuda" because of her intense play and was the leader of the team prayer before games.
In 1984, Palin won the Miss Wasilla Pageant, then finished second in the Miss Alaska pageant,at which she won a college scholarship and the "Miss Congeniality" award. Palin admits to smoking marijuana as a youth, during the time when possession was legal in Alaska, though she says she did not enjoy it.
Palin attended Hawaii Pacific College—now Hawaii Pacific University—in Honolulu for a semester in 1982, majoring in Business Administration. She transferred in 1983 to North Idaho College.In 1987,Palin received a Bachelor of Science degree in communications-journalism from the University of Idaho, where she also minored in political science.
In 1988, she worked as a sports reporter for KTUU-TV in Anchorage, Alaska.She also helped in her husband’s family commercial fishing business.Palin also had a 20 percent ownership in an Anchorage car wash business, according to state corporation records filed in 2004. Palin failed to report her stake in the company when running for governor in 2006; in April 2007, the state issued a "certificate of involuntary dissolution" because of the company's failure to file its biennial report and pay state licensing fees.
Palin attended Wasilla High School in Wasilla, Alaska, where she was the head of the Fellowship of Christian Athletes chapter at the school, and the point guard and captain of the school's basketball team.She helped the team win the Alaska small-school basketball championship in 1982, hitting a critical free throw in the last seconds of the game, despite having an ankle stress fracture.She earned the nickname "Sarah Barracuda" because of her intense play and was the leader of the team prayer before games.
In 1984, Palin won the Miss Wasilla Pageant, then finished second in the Miss Alaska pageant,at which she won a college scholarship and the "Miss Congeniality" award. Palin admits to smoking marijuana as a youth, during the time when possession was legal in Alaska, though she says she did not enjoy it.
Palin attended Hawaii Pacific College—now Hawaii Pacific University—in Honolulu for a semester in 1982, majoring in Business Administration. She transferred in 1983 to North Idaho College.In 1987,Palin received a Bachelor of Science degree in communications-journalism from the University of Idaho, where she also minored in political science.
In 1988, she worked as a sports reporter for KTUU-TV in Anchorage, Alaska.She also helped in her husband’s family commercial fishing business.Palin also had a 20 percent ownership in an Anchorage car wash business, according to state corporation records filed in 2004. Palin failed to report her stake in the company when running for governor in 2006; in April 2007, the state issued a "certificate of involuntary dissolution" because of the company's failure to file its biennial report and pay state licensing fees.
About Sarah Palin
Sarah Louise Heath Palin( born February 11, 1964) is the governor of Alaska and the presumptive Republican vice presidential nominee in the 2008 United States presidential election.
Palin served two terms on the Wasilla, Alaska, city council from 1992 to 1996, then won two terms as mayor of Wasilla from 1996 to 2002. After an unsuccessful campaign for lieutenant governor of Alaska in 2002, she chaired the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission from 2003 to 2004 while also serving as Ethics Supervisor of the commission.
In November 2006, Palin was elected the governor of Alaska, becoming the first woman and youngest person to hold the office. She defeated incumbent Republican governor Frank Murkowski in the Republican primary and former Democratic governor Tony Knowles in the general election, garnering 48.3% of the vote.
On August 29, 2008, Republican presidential candidate Senator John McCain announced that he had chosen Palin as his running mate. She is expected to be nominated at the 2008 Republican National Convention in Saint Paul, Minnesota. Palin would be the second woman to run for vice president on a major-party ticket and the first Republican woman to do so.
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