Well, it looks like my life is becoming a little less of a media circus, so it's time to get back to hard-core analysis of the VP race. If you haven't heard yet, the numerous polls show the McCain-Palin ticket dramatically stealing the lead from Obama-Biden. A USA Today/Gallup poll even shows a 10% McCain-Palin lead among likely voters.
So, the Palin nomination (coupled with a fantastic convention) has definitely invigorated the McCain campaign. But before we issue a premature declaration of victory, we have to answer one critical question: is this merely a short-term bounce out of the convention or a total realignment of public opinion? Personally, I say that the answer to both questions is "yes". The GOP ticket is certainly flying height coming out of the convention, and the polls have yet to stabilize. However, there is good reason to believe that the dynamics of this election have changed. By nominating Palin, the McCain campaign has recaptured the "maverick" label and ripped the "change" argument out from under Barack Obama. Meanwhile, strategist Steve Schmidt has overhauled the McCain campaign, molding it into a lean, mean electoral machine. And finally, Barack Obama has thrown his campaign totally off message by nominating uber-insider Joe Biden as his VP. With all of those factors working in McCain's favor, it is not a stretch to think that the Gentleman from Arizona will still be in the lead once the polls stabilize.
It also does not appear that "Sarahmania" will peter out any time soon. The McCain campaign is wisely choosing to keep her in the news rather than allowing her to disappear until the debates. This will allow Palin's star power to continue to lift the McCain campaign and build anticipation for the debates. Sarah should do well against Biden (who has been largely de-fanged by her nomination), launching a second round of Palin-buzz akin to what we saw after her convention speech. McCain himself will also get buzz out of the debates, as he shines brightest in Q&A sessions. Obama, on the other hand, is best when he delivers uninterrupted speeches.
In short, my view of the future is this: The current bounce from Palin will likely continue until the debates, when the McCain ticket will another shot in the arm. After that, he just has to hold the lead until election day. I'm not necessarily saying that this is going to happen, but I think that it is a very plausible scenario. So, while I wouldn't start the party just yet, it may be time to start pricing champagne.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Palin's Personal life
Palin is a self-described "hockey mom" and mother of five. Among her common activities are hunting, ice fishing and riding snowmobiles; she has also run a marathon, and owns a floatplane.
Palin was originally baptized as a Roman Catholic, but her parents switched to the Wasilla Assembly of God, a Pentecostal church, where she was rebaptized at age 12 or 13, and attended under pastor Ed Kalnins until 2002. When she is in the capital, she attends Juneau Christian Center,another Assemblies of God church. Her current home church in Wasilla is The Wasilla Bible Church, under Pastor Larry Kroon an independent congregation.Initial reports described her as the first Pentecostal ever named to a major party's presidential ticket; Palin has described herself as a "Bible-believing Christian" who attends a non-denominational church. The National Catholic Reporter described her as a "post-denominational" Christian.
In June 2008, Palin spoke at her former church. On the topic of Iraq, she asked that people pray for the soldiers and that "there is a plan and that that plan is God's plan." In regards to a proposed natural-gas pipeline she said, "I think God's will has to be done in unifying people and companies to get that gas line built." On August 17, Palin was in attendence when David Brickner, the leader of Jews for Jesus, gave a guest sermon claiming that terrorism against Israel is due to the disbelief in Jesus by its Jewish population; according to a McCain campaign spokesman, Palin rejected his views.
Sarah Palin eloped with her high-school boyfriend, Todd Palin, on August 29, 1988, when she was 24 years old.Todd works for BP as an oil-field production operator[119] and owns a commercial fishing business. The family lives in Wasilla.
The couple have five children: sons Track (born 1989) and Trig (born 2008), and daughters Bristol (born 1990), Willow (born 1995), and Piper (born 2001).[120] Todd and Track Palin are registered to vote as independents ("undeclared").[121] Track Palin enlisted in the U.S. Army on September 11, 2007, subsequently joining an infantry brigade. He is set to be deployed to Iraq in September 2008.Palin's youngest child, Trig, has Down syndrome, diagnosed prenatally.
Palin announced on September 1, 2008, that her daughter Bristol was five months pregnant and intended to keep the baby and marry the father of her child, 17-year-old Levi Johnston.The McCain-Palin campaign stated that John McCain was aware of her daughter's pregnancy, but that it did not affect his choice.Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama and his campaign staff declared the subject "off limits" in the coming campaign.
Palin was originally baptized as a Roman Catholic, but her parents switched to the Wasilla Assembly of God, a Pentecostal church, where she was rebaptized at age 12 or 13, and attended under pastor Ed Kalnins until 2002. When she is in the capital, she attends Juneau Christian Center,another Assemblies of God church. Her current home church in Wasilla is The Wasilla Bible Church, under Pastor Larry Kroon an independent congregation.Initial reports described her as the first Pentecostal ever named to a major party's presidential ticket; Palin has described herself as a "Bible-believing Christian" who attends a non-denominational church. The National Catholic Reporter described her as a "post-denominational" Christian.
In June 2008, Palin spoke at her former church. On the topic of Iraq, she asked that people pray for the soldiers and that "there is a plan and that that plan is God's plan." In regards to a proposed natural-gas pipeline she said, "I think God's will has to be done in unifying people and companies to get that gas line built." On August 17, Palin was in attendence when David Brickner, the leader of Jews for Jesus, gave a guest sermon claiming that terrorism against Israel is due to the disbelief in Jesus by its Jewish population; according to a McCain campaign spokesman, Palin rejected his views.
Sarah Palin eloped with her high-school boyfriend, Todd Palin, on August 29, 1988, when she was 24 years old.Todd works for BP as an oil-field production operator[119] and owns a commercial fishing business. The family lives in Wasilla.
The couple have five children: sons Track (born 1989) and Trig (born 2008), and daughters Bristol (born 1990), Willow (born 1995), and Piper (born 2001).[120] Todd and Track Palin are registered to vote as independents ("undeclared").[121] Track Palin enlisted in the U.S. Army on September 11, 2007, subsequently joining an infantry brigade. He is set to be deployed to Iraq in September 2008.Palin's youngest child, Trig, has Down syndrome, diagnosed prenatally.
Palin announced on September 1, 2008, that her daughter Bristol was five months pregnant and intended to keep the baby and marry the father of her child, 17-year-old Levi Johnston.The McCain-Palin campaign stated that John McCain was aware of her daughter's pregnancy, but that it did not affect his choice.Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama and his campaign staff declared the subject "off limits" in the coming campaign.
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